The Analysis of the Impact of Demand Factors and Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Dynamics of Industrial Production in Russia

The article is devoted to studying the influence of demand and changes in the exchange rate on the dynamics of industrial production in Russia. The purpose of this article is to determine the power of interrelation between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes in internal and external demand for manufactured goods and determining the impact of fluctuations in the national currency regarding this interrelation. As the research data, such indices of industrial production as the index of industrial production, commodity turnover by types of economic activity, price indices, the volume of exports and imports of industrial goods according to the customs statistics, and the average annual exchange rates are used. The objects of the research are the main branches of industrial production in Russia, which are represented in accordance with the international classifications of economic activity. As the research tools there were used common methods of transformation, grouping, graphical and tabular visualization of data, as well as the methods of statistical analysis, the formation of meaningful statistical indicators, and the index method. The application of grouping by means of transitional keys to the initial data of customs statistics allows us to ensure the consistency of the movement data of the goods across the border with their production within the country. This allows us to create new statistical meaningful indicators that characterize the demand for goods produced by separate industries. The use of index methods to analyze industrial production data and the obtained indicators provides an opportunity to assess the influence of demand factors and changes in the exchange rate on the dynamics of the industrial production. The use of the described indicators estimating the demand for industrial goods makes it possible to explain deeper and more significantly the trends in the dynamics of industrial production. On the basis of the analysis, it is concluded that in most industries, the import substitution processes are traced, the effect of which is 3 to 10 percentage points, depending on the industry. The analysis of the dynamics also suggests that in the forthcoming years, while maintaining the policies aimed at developing domestic demand and maintaining efforts for import substitution, growth trends will become more pronounced.

динамика, статистика, промышленное производство, спрос, таможенная статистика, курс валют, Россия, dynamics, statistics, industrial production, demand, customs statistics, exchange rates, Russia

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