Dynamics Trends of Russians’ Mortgage Debt in Tightening Macroprudential Policy

The Bank of Russia’s macroprudential measures, implemented since 2021, target the growth and structure of Russian household mortgage debt. Tightening these measures over the past three years actualise of the effectiveness and validity of this policy of the Bank of Russia relevant. Therefore, the study aims to analyse by statistical methods the trends in mortgage lending that has developed in Russia in tightening macroprudential policy. To meet the goal, statistical analysis used publicly available data on the dynamics and regional distribution of Russian mortgage debt, along with key mortgage lending terms (interest rates and loan durations). This paper analyzes mortgage loan dynamics (total and per capita) from 2018 to 2024, focusing on how macroprudential measures (higher interest rates and tighter subprime lending limits) curbed growth. The first part of the paper explains prizing mortgage as a mechanism for households’ basic need for a home satisfaction, and discusses why implementing this mechanism poses a threat of a mortgage crisis. The second part analyses territorial differentiation of mortgage loans and terms in monthly dynamics over the past five years. Also, the authors presented results for the macroeconomic factors’ impact on the mortgage. Based on the official statistics, the study proved a high territorial homogeneity of the trends in mortgage. The paper revealed that macroprudential limits will force low-income households to abandon a house that will lead to increase social tension. Resuming, the authors confirmed a significant positive relationship between the key rate and mortgage liability dynamics, thus proving the hypothesis that raising the key rate is unreliable. The paper contends that these developments stem from not only flawed regulatory choices but also insufficient housing affordability and systemic financial flaws. Considering regulatory reform requires looking beyond individual incentives and banking oversight to focus on systemic interconnectedness and mortgage lending transparency.

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