Research of the Impact of Dividend Policy on The Fundamental Factors of Value and Capitalisation in the Gold Mining Industry

Distribution policy, as a tool for managing financial flows, not only allows a company to meet shareholders’ current income needs but also ensures future investment and development. Conversely, an imbalance in this policy can lead to a decline in capitalization, a deterioration in financial condition, and a loss of investor confidence. However, the topic of distribution policy as it applies to Russian companies, particularly in the gold mining industry, has been understudied in the academic literature. Existing studies typically examine general principles and models, but overlook the specifics of individual organizations and the particularities of market conditions. The lack of research considering such aspects necessitates this study, the purpose of which is to analyze distribution policy using a gold mining company as an example and determine its impact on fundamental factors and the company’s market capitalization. This study examines the concept and types of distribution policy, assesses the factors dependent on it, conducts a scenario analysis of its impact on market capitalization, and conducts an event-driven analysis of share price. The result and novelty of this study lies in the development of an algorithm for assessing the impact of distribution policy on fundamental value drivers and a company’s market capitalization, taking into account industry characteristics and market conditions. The results of this study may be useful to a wide range of stakeholders, including investors in assessing the attractiveness of a company’s securities, company management in developing a business development strategy, making decisions on capital investments, and optimizing the capital structure, and analytical agencies in compiling issuer reliability ratings.

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