Assessing Technological Security in Russia’s Industrial Sector

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of sanctions-related challenges on the technological development of industry. The article presents the results of an analysis of the state of technological security in Russian industry under sanctions restrictions. The authors propose a system of indicators that reflect the level and dynamics of industrial output, technological renewal of production, energy efficiency, innovation potential, as well as the development of digitalisation and advanced technologies. The study includes a periodisation of the sanctions regime and a comparative industry-level analysis based on the proposed indicators. The article shows that sanctions have had an asymmetric impact on industrial sectors: the extractive sector has experienced persistent stagnation, while manufacturing industries have demonstrated accelerated development driven by import substitution, investment in modernisation of fixed assets, and the expanded use of advanced production technologies. Official statistical data facilitated to obtain and systematise the key quantitative effects of sanctions on the main indicators of technological development of industry, and this allowed for their interpreting in the context of long-term technological security. The study results in a substantiated set of possible trajectories for the technological development of Russian industry under ongoing sanctions, as well as the formulation of guidelines for industrial and technology policy.